Glencore CEO's $20bn boast a sign of the times

Ivan Glasenberg, the boss of miner and trader Glencore, told analysts on Thursday that the company’s much lower net debt ($15.5bn at the year end, $10bn lower than the prior year and on track to fall further) would, in theory, allow for a huge windfall.

As usual, Glasenberg was being provocative. Shareholders aren't about to drown in Glencore cash. Yet his remarks show confidence is flowing back through the Swiss-based commodity house. “What a difference a year makes,” he said at the start of his presentation. Not half.

Eighteen months ago, Glencore had to raise capital when short-sellers scented a kill amid cratering commodity prices and fears that China's economy would implode.

It has since disposed of about $6bn of assets and cut operating costs and capex. Meanwhile, commodity prices have rebounded, to put it mildy. Take cobalt, an ingredient of lithium-ion batteries for electric cars.

Glencore controls a big chunk of the market and this chart shows what cobalt prices have done recently:

Commodity prices aren't set in stone, of course. But should things stay as they are, Glencore would generate about $15bn of Ebitda in 2017 and roughly $7bn in free cash flow. With around $1bn set aside for dividends in 2017, net debt would fall to about $9bn by the end of the year and leave the balance sheet looking rather tame.

The guidance implies net debt of just 0.6 times Ebitda by the end of 2017, versus 1.5 times at the end of 2016. Glencore promises that net debt will not exceed two times Ebitda.

So Glencore's problem, if you can call it that, is what to do with all that extra cash.

It still has mothballed reserves and doesn't need to spend vast amounts on capex. This will stay at close to $4bn for the next three to five years, a relief given the industry's reputation for frittering away money.

While Glencore will want to keep credit rating agencies sweet and powder dry for sensible M&A, it can afford to be a bit kinder to shareholders. After all, they've had a heart-stopping time of it.

Glencore's 2017 dividend pledge equates to a pretty miserly 2% yield (there's more on offer from 2018). A special dividend as reward for shareholders' sleepless nights in late 2015 doesn't feel too imprudent.

With Glencore executives holding a lot of stock - Glasenberg has an 8% share - the management aren't likely to put up much resistance. Plus returning cash would temper any urge to start spending too freely or chase risky deals.

Chutzpah is one thing, but carelessness quite another.

* Peter Grauer, the chairperson of Bloomberg LP, is a senior independent non-executive director at Glencore.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.