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IT’s just got the feel of Groundhog Day. Reports of the possible arrest of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan this week are nothing new. Conjecture about political interference in Treasury has been part of our political discourse for almost a year. A possible replacement of a credible Finance Minister is once again a possibility. It’s all distressingly and depressingly familiar.
Pravin Gordhan now finds himself under immense pressure. Put politics aside for the moment, he now has a narrowing window of only a few months to attempt to stave off the dreaded ratings agency downgrade. He has been at pains to confess that concrete action is now required quickly to rescue the ailing economy and global perceptions. Time is fast running out.
So Gordhan has to crack the whip – if he still has one. And there’s the rub. Threats of imminent criminal charges have one single purpose – to intimidate the most important cabinet minister at the most critical time in our recent economic history.
Gordhan’s desire to consolidate fiscal spend, undo patronage networks and rent seeking and fundamentally alter the ethically moribund state of many of the core state-owned enterprises is a threat to many used to years of privilege and perks. No wonder the man is under pressure.
But it increasingly seems as though Gordhan is isolated. He certainly has received no visible support from Jacob Zuma. In fact, the silence from the President is in itself deafening. This adds to the perception, that the Hawks are being used as a proxy agency intent on doing the political bidding of factions seeking to protect their turf.
These events also have to be seen in the context of the ANC’s recent announcement that President Zuma has taken control of parastatal (SOE) strategy. Again, perceptions of linkages between the President and the troublesome national airline (SAA), suggest that Gordhan’s efforts are being undermined. It’s a sorry state of political fiefdoms gone rouge with compromised leadership impotent or just unwilling to restore good governance.
These risks are well documented by the ratings agencies. We cannot say we have not been warned that this untenable situation of our own doing is a key criterion for a downgrade.
Not without support
So Gordhan now has a stark choice. The forces against him are serious in attempting to rein him in. Whatever perks they wish to preserve, they threaten, at worse, his longevity in office or, at the very least, his ability to exert political will in taking rectifying actions.
Gordhan will have to weigh up these choices before him. With the backing of a substantive portion of South African civil society, the business community and major factions within the ANC (and DA), he is not without a support base. Given the gravitas of both his supporters – and his critical position as a bulwark against excess, he is not going to fold up and leave without a considerable fight. He is a canny operator with enough political savvy to fight levels of intimidation that most ordinary mortals would’ve found severely debilitating.
Gordhan’s supporters know the consequences of either his arrest or a forced resignation. There are no prizes for guessing that South Africa’s political credibility has been severely compromised in the past and sets itself up again for a compounded effect should he go.
The country barely got a ‘get-out-of-jail-free’ card after Nenegate, but a Gordhangate would leave us – and the currency reeling.
Who-ever his replacement would be and no matter how talented, he would be tainted with the brush of political interference and being a lackey of those determined to get their hands on Treasury and the proverbial cookie jar. It’s a perception that even the most sophisticated amount of political spin and PR won’t change.
Any talented (but politically compromised successor) – of the likes of Brian Molefe – would face an immediate run on the rand, a likely downgrade and resultant onerous costs of borrowing on financial markets. No matter how populist any non-Gordhan administration might wish to be, money would simply cost more or not be available. Under such conditions, already creaking state coffers would have difficulty dolling out favourable salary increases to civil servants resulting in political pressures already being felt.
Between a rock and a hard place
So for those who wish to protect the status quo – which may still include President Zuma – the best bet might be to hold Gordhan to ransom with pending charges yet keep his face on the door to the office to prevent a larger melt-down. For Gordhan, this is a highly problematic scenario that is likely to make his job impossible to execute in any meaningful way.
Gordhan therefore has to make a tough choice – capitulate to pressure or precipitate a governmental crisis by sticking to his guns. Either way, South Africa enters another sea of uncharted waters as differing factions weigh up their strengths and weaknesses.
This internal firmament within the ANC will continue as the party struggles over digesting the poor election results and looming leadership change.
The Gordhan saga is really a proxy for the future battles within the ANC over governance, ethics and leadership. However the dice falls, the tough road ahead will be felt in differing degrees or difficulty.
* Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
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