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Greg Nott writes that he is of the view that the exodus of many South Africans of all colours, cultural backgrounds, and religious beliefs from our shores means that we are failing to inspire hope for the future of our nation.
Hope deferred makes the heart sick, and it seems that too many South Africans feel that the hopes and aspirations they held for this beautiful country have not been realised. Or is there another explanation as to why close to one million South Africans of all races and creeds have emigrated from our shores in the past five years?
According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Desa), 914 901 South African citizens emigrated between 2015 and 2020. Data shows that three times as many have emigrated from South Africa between 2015 and 2020 than between 2010 and 2015. Emigration has increased enough for us to sit up and pay attention.
There are many reasons for migration across the globe, and I don’t want to rehash the many national issues we all know about. But I'd like to suggest that the exodus of so many South Africans of all colours, cultural backgrounds, and religious beliefs means that we are failing to inspire hope for the future of our nation.
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Although many are undoubtedly left with broken hearts, they have also left behind the dreams and the stories that would have been part of a country that still has so much promise. This is unfortunate because I believe among them are future presidents, future captains of industry, future entrepreneurs, future space travellers and future rugby captains.
We need to keep our hopes alive. For those of us who were actively lobbying and struggling (some with their lives, others of us with our mouths) for South Africa's transition to democracy, we remember how close to the abyss we came. We dare not allow hopelessness and discouragement to cause us to throw in the towel. So much has already been paid forward that it would be such a waste to give up on our Beloved Country now that so much is simmering beneath the surface.
Economist and political analyst JP Landman commented in a News24 opinion piece last year that summarises where we are at right now:
There is hope, and we need to keep it alive.
Post-Covid migration and shifting geo-political alliances
According to the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), there were around 281 million international migrants in the world in 2020, which equated to about 3.6 per cent of the global population.
The number of international migrants has increased over the past five decades. As globalisation has increased and travel has been modernised, so has the movement of people between nations. There were three times more global migrants in 2020 than in 1970.
With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, governments put various restrictions in place to limit the spread of the virus, and this limited the global movement of people between countries. However, restrictions have since been lifted in most nations and with that, freedom of movement between countries has resumed, but migration patterns have changed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
According to the UNHCR, an ongoing refugee crisis began in Europe in late February 2022 after the Russian invasion and subsequently, over 8.1 million refugees have been recorded across Europe, while another 8 million have been displaced within Ukraine by late May 2022.
Although President Cyril Ramaphosa and certain members of cabinet have defended South Africa's stance on Russia as playing a "neutral, diplomatic" role, our role in the conflict is being questioned by our trade partners with the US, EU and UK, all watching our foreign policy moves. These nations account for 36% of all our exports.
Our trade with Russia and China cannot replace trade with US, EU, and UK, as our current trade with these nations is much smaller. In 2021, South Africa's exports to and imports from Russia and friends came to R15.7 billion. For the 30 countries in NATO, that number came to R1.131 trillion.
More of our citizens may consider or be forced to emigrate if global tensions between the West and Russia increase. What if our global trade partners punish South Africa for being seen to be siding with China and Russia?
Let the people govern
Governments across the world would do well to note that globally, there is a rising sentiment among voters that governments have slipped out of the hands of ordinary citizens. This is causing a surging wave of populism to destabilise democracies around the world, as explained by John G. Matsusaka, author of "Let the People Rule: How Direct Democracy Can Meet the Populist Challenge".
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Our country's diplomatic stance should not penalise ordinary citizens, but seek to represent their interests and concerns. This will ensure the stability and cohesion we need as we navigate our way through stormy seas.
In my view, now is the time for each of us to focus on the well-being and cohesion of our local communities. Focusing on our macro issues can sometimes lead to despondency. But if each of us focuses on our neighbourhoods, on coming together to collaborate and demanding accountability and action on safety and security, service delivery, infrastructure maintenance and social cohesion, then it doesn’t just effect change, but it helps all of us to be hopeful about the future of this beautiful nation.
As Deputy President Paul Mashatile said recently:
- Greg Nott is the Head of the Africa Practice at Norton Rose Fulbright and specialises in energy deals
